Explore the complex challenges facing Ukraine’s mining industry, from outdated Soviet-era geological reports to hazardous unexploded ordnance risks.
Video transcription
Soviet-Era Reports and Modern Reporting Standards
Most of Ukraine's mineral resources are based on Soviet-era reports - outdated documents, many completed prior to 1991. These reports were created before international mineral reserve reporting standards were established, standards that came about largely in response to investment scandals like Bre-X Gold in the 1990s.
The standards simply weren't available at the time, and many of these old reports don't meet today's requirements. Some of the earlier Soviet reports may have been based only on surface outcrops and geological mapping, without proper exploration drilling and assaying. Additionally, some of the old analytical methods are no longer considered sufficient. For example, fully characterizing rare earth elements in ore requires inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) - a modern analytical technique that wasn't available decades ago.
Landmine Contamination and Exploration Risk
There is a serious issue with the actual resources versus reserves classification. The Halo Trust, a nonprofit organization that helps nations train citizens to clear farmlands of mines after conflicts, generated a map overlaying the locations of landmines and unexploded ordnance in Ukraine with reported mineral deposit occurrences. It paints a concerning picture.
Just like farmers, most mining companies don't want to send personnel and equipment into post-war areas that haven't been carefully cleared of dangerous military ordnance.
A comparable example exists in California - the Chocolate Mountains east of the Salton Sea have been used by the U.S. military for decades as a training range. Mining companies are not allowed to explore those mountains, even though they may contain valuable gold deposits, because of the amount of unexploded ordnance on the ground.
Cleaning up Ukrainian farmland to produce crops has a relatively short return timeline. But clearing an area for potential mineral exploration and mining - with a revenue timeline spanning years to decades - is far less attractive as an investment.
The Rare Earth Resource Question
Ukraine has deposits of rocks containing rare earth elements, but no proper assessment has been done in terms of grade and tonnage that meets modern standards. Reports discussed online suggest that both the tonnage and the grade of these materials are not particularly impressive.
Another critical issue is that most rare earth element and lithium occurrences in Ukraine are hosted in very hard rock - spodumene and granitic formations. This is fundamentally different from deposits currently being mined economically, such as lithium from brine operations (salars, oilfield brines, and geothermal brines).
For comparison, one of the world's historically largest rare earth mines - Mountain Pass in California - is hosted in carbonate rock that dissolves easily with acid, making extraction straightforward. Ukraine, much like Greenland, faces the challenge that its rare earth elements appear to be locked in hard granitic rocks, making extraction very costly.
The Origin of the "Mineral Riches" Narrative
The source of the narrative around Ukraine's mineral wealth can be traced to a November 2024 report from the Ukrainian Geological Survey titled "Ukraine Critical Minerals Portfolio." The report mistakenly refers to rare and rare earth metals such as tantalum, niobium, and beryllium - which are not actually rare earth metals. It reads more like an investment pitch, presenting Ukraine as a destination for future mining partnerships, and was apparently designed to engage with the newly elected Trump administration in Washington.
Weeks later, this message was amplified by another report from a Lithuanian-based NGO which, although not formally affiliated with NATO, calls itself the NATO Energy Security Center of Excellence. This report similarly claimed that Ukraine's minerals were vital for nations aiming to reduce reliance on countries like China.
The brochure mistakenly listed titanium, lithium, beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium, thorium, graphite, apatite, fluorite, and nickel as rare earth metals - none of which belong to that category. But as apparently intended, the messaging gained traction, leading to widespread confusion about the actual nature and scale of Ukraine's rare earth element endowment.